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Same data, different analysts: variation in effect sizes due to analytical decisions in ecology and evolutionary biology

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AuthorsElliot GouldOAHannah S. FraserTimothy H. ParkerShinichi NakagawaOASimon C. GriffithPeter A. VeskFiona FidlerDaniel G. HamiltonRobin N. Abbey-LeeJessica K. AbbottLuis A. AguirreCarles AlcarazIrith AloniDrew AltschulOAKunal ArekarJeff W. AtkinsJoe AtkinsonChristopher M. BakerMeghan BarrettKristian BellSuleiman Kehinde BelloIván BeltránBernd J. BerauerMichael Grant BertramPeter D. BillmanCharlie K. BlakeShannon BlakeLouis BliardOAAndrea Bonisoli-AlquatiTimothée BonnetCamille Nina Marion BordesAneesh P. H. BoseThomas Botterill-JamesMelissa Anna BoydSarah A. BoyleTom Bradfer-LawrenceJennifer BradhamJack A. BrandOAMartin I. BrengdahlMartin BullaLuc BussièreEttore CamerlenghiSara E. CampbellLeonardo L. F. CamposAnthony CaravaggiPedro CardosoCharles J. W. CarrollTherese A. CatanachXuan ChenHeung Ying Janet ChikEmily Sarah ChoyAlec Philip ChristieAngela ChuangAmanda J. ChuncoBethany L. ClarkAndrea ContinaGarth A. CoverntonMurray P. CoxKimberly A. CressmanMarco CrottiConnor Davidson CrouchPietro B. D’AmelioAlexandra Allison de SousaTimm Fabian DöbertRalph DoblerAdam J. DobsonTim S. DohertySzymon Marian DrobniakAlexandra Grace DuffyAlison B. DuncanRobert P. DunnJamie DunningTrishna DuttaLuke Eberhart-HertelJared Alan ElmoreMahmoud Medhat ElsherifOAHolly M. EnglishDavid C. EnsmingerUlrich Rainer ErnstStephen M. FergusonEsteban Fernandez-JuricicThalita Ferreira-ArrudaJohn FiebergElizabeth A. FinchEvan A. FiorenzaDavid N. FisherAmélie FontaineWolfgang ForstmeierYoan FourcadeGraham S. FrankCathryn A. FreundEduardo Fuentes-LilloSara L. GandyDustin G. GannonAna I. García-CervigónAlexis C. GarretsonXuezhen GeWilliam L. GearyCharly GéronMarc GillesAntje GirndtDaniel GliksmanHarrison B. GoldspielDylan G. E. GomesMegan Kate GoodSarah C. GosleeJ. Stephen GosnellEliza M. GramesPaolo GrattonNicholas M. GrebeSkye M. GreenlerMaaike GriffioenDaniel M. GriffithFrances J. GriffithJake J. GrossmanAli GüncanStef HaesenJames G. HaganHeather A. HagerJonathan Philo HarrisNatasha Dean HarrisonSarah Syedia HasnainJustin Chase HavirdAndrew J. HeatonMaría Laura Herrera-ChaustreTanner J. HowardBin-Yan HsuFabiola IannarilliEsperanza C. IranzoErik N. K. IversonSaheed Olaide JimohDouglas H. JohnsonMartin JohnssonJesse JornaTommaso JuckerMartin JungIneta KačergytėOAOliver KaltzAlison KeClint D. KellyKatharine KeoganFriedrich Wolfgang KeppelerAlexander K. KillionDongmin KimDavid P. KochanPeter KorstenShan KothariJonas KupplerJillian M. KuschMalgorzata LagiszOAKristen Marianne LallaDaniel J. LarkinCourtney L. LarsonKatherine S. LauckM. Elise LauterburAlan LawDon-Jean Léandri-BretonJonas J. LembrechtsKiara L’HerpiniereEva J. P. LievensDaniela Oliveira de LimaShane LindsayOAMartin LuquetRoss MacLeodKirsty H. MacphieKit MagellanMagdalena M. MairOALisa E. MalmStefano MammolaCaitlin P. MandevilleMichael ManhartLaura Milena Manrique-GarzonElina MäntyläPhilippe MarchandBenjamin Michael MarshallCharles A. MartinDominic Andreas MartinJake Mitchell MartinApril Robin MartinigOAErin S. McCallumMark McCauleySabrina M. McNewScott J. MeinersThomas MerklingMarcus MichelangeliMaria MoironBruno MoreiraJennifer MortensenBenjamin MosTaofeek Olatunbosun MurainaPenelope Wrenn MurphyLuca NelliPetri NiemeläJosh NightingaleGustav NilsonneSergio NolazcoSabine S. NootenJessie Lanterman NovotnyAgnes Birgitta OlinChris L. OrganKate L. OstevikFacundo Xavier PalacioMatthieu PaquetOADarren James ParkerDavid J. PascallValerie J. PasquarellaJohn Harold PatersonAna Payo-PayoKaren Marie PedersenGrégoire PerezKayla I. PerryPatrice PottierOAMichael J. ProulxRaphaël ProulxJessica L. PruettVeronarindra RamananjatoFinaritra Tolotra RandimbiarisonOnja H. RazafindratsimaDiana J. RennisonFederico RivaSepand RiyahiMichael James RoastFelipe Pereira RochaDominique G. RocheOACristian Román-PalaciosMichael S. RosenbergJessica RossFreya E. RowlandDeusdedith RugemalilaAvery L. RussellSuvi RuuskanenPatrick SacconeAsaf SadehStephen M. SalazarKris SalesPablo SalmónAlfredo Sánchez-TójarLeticia Pereira SantosFrancesca SantostefanoHayden T. SchillingMarcus SchmidtTim SchmollAdam C. SchneiderAllie E. SchrockJulia SchroederNicolas SchtickzelleNick L. SchultzDrew A. ScottMichael Peter ScroggieJulie Teresa ShapiroNitika SharmaCaroline L. ShearerDiego SimónMichael I. SitvarinFabrício Luiz SkupienHeather Lea SlinnGrania Polly SmithJeremy A. SmithRahel SollmannKaitlin Stack WhitneyShannon Michael StillErica F. StuberGuy F. SuttonBen SwallowConor Claverie TaffElina TakolaOAAndrew J. TanentzapRocío TarjueloRichard J. TelfordChristopher J. ThawleyHugo ThierryJacqueline ThomsonSvenja TidauEmily M. TompkinsClaire Marie TortorelliAndrew TrlicaBiz R. TurnellLara UrbanStijn Van de VondelJessica Eva Megan van der WalJens Van EeckhovenFrancis van OordtK. Michelle VanderwelMark C. VanderwelKaren J. VanderwolfJuliana VélezDiana Carolina Vergara-FlorezBrian C. VerrelliMarcus Vinícius VieiraNora VillamilValerio VitaliJulien VolleringJeffrey WalkerXanthe J. WalkerJonathan A. WalterPawel WaryszakRyan J. WeaverRonja E. M. WedegärtnerDaniel L. WellerShannon Whelan
Year2025
VenueBMC Biology

Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

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