2 registered reports
Registered Reports were introduced a decade ago to reduce data dredging and the selective reporting of “statistically significant” results in journal articles. Previous studies have examined the extent to which journals have adopted the procedure and the number of such articles published in these journals. This bibliometric study focuses on the subdiscipline that has most thoroughly adopted the procedure, experimental psychology, and compiles a more complete list of published Registered Reports than used in previous studies and estimates their prevalence in the experimental psychology literature using Web of Science for total article counts. Thirty-six experimental psychology journals were found to have adopted the procedure, but 11 had not published any Registered Reports by the end of 2023. One journal accounted for almost 30% of the 227 Registered Reports, and eight others for a further 50%. Registered Reports represented a small percentage of the total experimental psychology articles published over the period 2013–2023 at 1.2%. Lack of diffusion of Registered Reports through the subdiscipline that has most fully embraced it is likely due to it having little value within the academic incentive system. Future studies would benefit from journals more accurately identifying Registered Reports and the creation of a central registry.
This Stage 1 Registered Report proposes a preregistered replication and extension of prior exploratory work comparing an Intuition Market (IM) with a traditional Prediction Market (PM) in forecasting binary financial outcomes. Previous exploratory analyses suggested that IM performance may equal or exceed that of PM under specific conditions, particularly when predictions are expressed with moderate-to-high confidence and when both methods converge on the same outcome. However, these findings require confirmation using independent data and preregistered analyses. The present study evaluates these patterns using a new set of 30 future financial events. Primary objectives are to test whether (i) IM predictions exceed chance accuracy when confidence is ≥60%, (ii) concordant IM–PM predictions yield higher-than-chance accuracy. All hypotheses, inclusion criteria, outcome measures, and analyses are specified a priori. Primary outcomes are predictive accuracy percentages. This study aims to assess whether intuition-based forecasting provides reliable information beyond standard prediction markets, while ensuring full transparency, reproducibility, and protection against analytical flexibility.